It bisects six counties Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia but is far bigger than the . A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. Second, when we examine a short string of elections, we do indeed, find that some counties go with the winner in all (or virtually all the elections). President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. I feel that if Trump is president again, that will cease. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Eleven of the 19 were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. But according to the. We were as far down to five cooks last year. He is his own worst enemy.. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. I find that hard to believe. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Im kind of leaning toward being an independent. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. This includes personalizing content and advertising. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. The bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large swath of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Hes organizing a Second Amendment rally in Ridgway for Oct. 17 to make sure gun rights are fresh in peoples minds when they head to the ballot box. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Right now, its horrible. . In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. I think he is more for giving to the people.. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. I got a life. I vote for whomever I think is going to do the better job, whether they are a Democrat or a Republican. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. Miller cited seeing some retail and light industrial development around the county in recent yearsa Bass Pro Shops store in Bowling Green, a 1 million-square-foot expansion for First Solar in Perrysburg in 2018, and downtown revitalization in Bowling Green. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. I trust the system implicitly, he said. 2016 Trump. Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Of Wood Countys 92,119 registered voters, 9,479 of them are Democrats, 8,315 are Republicans, and 74,240 are independents, according to numbers from the Board of Elections. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. And to force somebody to do it, it just makes even less sense, because this country is supposed to be free.. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. At 6:30 pm we kick off an evening that showcases and celebrates Ukrainian arts and culture. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. At least Biden is honest, he said. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Things have been bad for so long, they dont care.. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Port Clinton, Ohio. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. Hes an elitist and just couldnt keep his mouth shut. Medicare is becoming a joke. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. This includes personalizing content and advertising. He says hell vote for Trump. Theyre scared. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. Im seeing more hate for this man than he has hated anyone, Tisdell said. We have become so divided. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. . Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. But thats not the picture I look at. Moreover, if we look at the political features of the bellwethers, we do not find them exclusively among counties that are highly politically competitive. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Fifteen percent is a very large gap to close, he said. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Enforce the ones that you do have, he said. The Princeton political scientist, Edward Tufte opens his 1975 co-authored article on bellwethers with: Prior to the 1936 presidential election, the conventional political wisdom had it that as Maine voted, so went the rest of the nation. It was easy. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Mike DeWine is running for reelection and facing candidates Joe Blystone, Jim Renacci, and Ron Hood in the primary. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a 3 point margin. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . I quit voting once out of the union.. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. Now, just because my president is Republican, I expected a swing to the right, but what we have nowthey broke the whole pendulum. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Im looking at both sides of it. Fitch said he finds the president to be arrogant and obnoxious at times, but I wasnt voting for a fishing buddy, I was looking for somebody to stir up Washington, D.C., Hes getting stuff done in an unconventional way, Fitch said. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. Shepherds family, on the other hand, wasnt much interested in politics. The counties are also mostly small and rural. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Before the 2020 election, Clallam was one of 19 counties with an unbroken record of voting for the winning presidential candidate since 1980. Visual inspection suggests that, like other counties, they voted in 2020 roughly as they did in 2016; given this (and given that many of these counties went solidly for Trump in 2016), it is unsurprising that Biden won only one of them. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. Of the 17 bellwether counties the margin of win by President Trump was 16 points on average! The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. About The Author. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. Two states have announced recounts. It will cycle through. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Titchner, a Vietnam veteran, has been painting houses for 45 years and said he votes based on the candidate, rather than the party. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Thus, as polarization rises, the potential for counties shifting their mean party preference across different elections declines. Theres significant variability among them, though. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. Its just not that great, Paul said. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. We need creative leadership, Miller said. "The three potentially competitive races in Virginia with Democratic incumbents could be a national bellwether," veteran Virginia political analyst Bob Holsworth told The Epoch Times. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Tammy, who didnt want to provide her last name, told The Epoch Times that during the summer leading up to the 2020 presidential election, the area had a regatta on Lake Erie in Marblehead in support of Donald Trump. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. I dont think he has done that bad of a job. Pre-performance Lobby events. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. dionisia pacquiao net worth; leer un archivo excel en sql server; alix pasquet iii relationship; american gold eagle type 1 vs type 2; sniper spotting scope; Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Previously, he covered national topics including politics, economy, education, and law enforcement. Republican Gov. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Right after we saw the results of the election and that Trump had lost, we were all like, what the hell?, said Tammy, a bartender at Wee Willys Sports Pub in Marblehead. Your email address will not be published. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. I think all politicians are crooks. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. He predicts that many Trump voters will start to waver in the weeks leading up to the election and will end up not voting. Blaine County. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election.
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