A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. So the combined probability is already around 1 in 40 million long but not insurmountable odds. On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born? "That's a pretty big number," I thought to myself. Thus, my existence depends on a vast number of meetings going just right; if they hadnt I would never have been born. Dr Ali Binazir, Contributor Author, Happiness Engineer & Personal Growth consultant creating tools for greater wellness & flourishing Jun 16, 2011, 03:58 PM EDT | Updated Aug 16, 2011 This post was published on the now-closed HuffPost Contributor platform. Onward to freedom! A fertile woman has 100,000 viable eggs on average. saving. Think of how strong our ancestors had to be to allow us to eat a sandwich or sing Happy Birthday. Well, the right sperm also had to meet the right egg to create your grandparents. 1/(100,000)(4 trillion)= 1/(105)(41012)= 1 in 4 x 1017, or one in 400 quadrillion. You get the volume of planet Earth. Turtle sticking his head out of that life preserver is simply the area inside the life preserver divided by the total area of all oceans, or about 1 in 700 trillion. They each roll the dice and they all come up with the exact same numberfor example, 550,343,279,001., A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible. So to the second question: how accurate is this number? Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 10 2,685,000. Every beginning Is only a sequel, after all, and the book of events is always open halfway through. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: 1 in 1045,000. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. Scientists have calculated the odds of a human being born as at least 1 in 400 trillion. Even with the lowest statistic of 1 in 400 trillion, you would have a better chance of winning over $100 million dollar lottery 9 times over your life again than you would have being born. Now imagine that each time the fly comes back from the moon it brings with it a speck of moon dust the size of a grain of sand (lets say 1 mg). Here's Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: "It's the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Its not cheesy to be grateful to be alive, if you look at the facts, it should be normal. The chances of them talking to one another is 1 in 10. Click the image to enlarge it and check their numbers: Of course, there are poets who argue exactly the opposite: that each of us is fated to exist, that there is a plan, and that all of us are expected. It is like finding out how many angels can stand on a pin-head! Heres Dr. Ali Binazir on the probability of a human being born: Its the probability of 2.5 million people getting together about the population of San Diego each to play a game of dice with trillion-sided dice. Well surely reply you within 48 hours. Hello there! You may think You say that to everyone!. dr ali binazir odds of being born 2022-06-25T04:47:45+00:00 And the chances of that lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in 2. Now take whats left and live it properly. Marcus Aurelius. Binazir recounted this Buddhist analogy: Imagine there was one life preserver thrown somewhere in some ocean and there is exactly one turtle in all of these oceans, swimming underwater somewhere. The following analysis, paraphrased at some points, is taken directly from Mr. Binazirs article: The probability of father meeting mother is 1 in 20,000. I bet the odds of becoming a millionaire in Zambia, where I lived for one year, is less than 1%. Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations? Perhaps three years ago or just last Tuesday a certain leaf fluttered from one shoulder to another? What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? I have one baby so far, but Im still fertile, according to science. Probability of right sperm meeting right egg: 1 in 400 quadrillion. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10. He concluded that the chances of a turtle sticking its head out in the middle of the life preserver was about one in 700 trillion. Step 2. This is also true of your grandparents parents, and their grandparents, and so on till the beginning of time. Pretty darn close, for such an unusual calculation. decision by design review farnam street; dr ali binazir odds of being born; post mortem fingerprint equipment. The scientists and Buddhists seem to agree. Say that over the course of all human existence, the likelihood of any one human offspring to survive childhood and live to reproductive age and have at least one kid is 50:50 -- one in two. One of the talks was by Mel Robbins, a riotously funny self-help author and life coach with a syndicated radio show. But when we take it back throughout all the unbroken generations of life, then to the formation of the earth, then the development of the galaxy, then the universe being created from the Big Bang, your odds have now been reduced to 1 in 10 followed by 2,685,000 zeroes. When expanded it provides a list of search options that will switch the search inputs to match the current selection. The Zen philosopher, Basho, once wrote, A flute with no holes, is not a flute. That means in every step of your lineage, the probability of the right sperm meeting the right egg such that the exact right ancestor would be created that would end up creating you is one in 400 quadrillion. Dr Ali Binazir is the author of the 'The Tao of Dating: The Smart Woman's Guide to Being Absolutely Irresistible', the highest-rated dating book on Amazon.co. Are they gross exaggerations? What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together? The chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is about . The odds of you existing have been calculated by Dr. Ali Binazir. The Nobel Prize winning poet Wislawa Szymborska once wrote about two lovers who liked to think they'd met entirely by chance, but no, she says, there was nothing chancy about it. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. To say that someone or something is contingent is to say that the existence of same is not inevitable but rather can only come about based on a number of previous things being true in a chain of being or causality. You are living a life you should mathematically not have ever had. You are a representative of an unbroken lineage of life going back 4 billion years. So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. His reasoning being that each person experiences an event of some sort every second. Lets say the fly takes a brief respite of one million years between trips. But let's think about this some more. You asked for more Brain Yoga, so here are the upcoming classes. Because the existence of you here now on planet earth presupposes another supremely unlikely and utterly undeniable chain of events. Osterholm is one of the world's foremost public health professionals, having served for 40 years on the frontlines of such diseases as Ebola, SARS, MERS, Zika and everything else. Essentially, what Borel said was that any event with a honking big (a technical term used by mathematicians) level of improbability would never happen. Otherwise they'd be different people, and so would their children, who would then have had children who were similar to you but not quite you. First, let us figure out the probability of one turtle sticking its head out of the one life preserver we toss out somewhere in the ocean. A little while ago I had the privilege of attending TEDx San Francisco, organized by the incomparable Christine Mason McCaull. Thank you, Monsignor. So the probability of that one sperm with half your name on it hitting that one egg with the other half of your name on it is one in 400 quadrillion. Dr. Ali Binazir Has 10 Years + Experience As A Author. For perspective on the size of those numbers, there are only 10x 80 elementary particles in the observable universe.). Say humans or humanoids have been around for about 3 million years, and that a generation is about 20 years. In it, she mentioned that scientists calculate the probability of your existing as you, today, at about one in 400 trillion (41014). dr ali binazir odds of being bornmartin et julien bouchet biathlon. We might not all like the cards we were dealt in life, but it is our choice to play what weve been given or to go on blaming our lot which is wanting more power, but giving up any power we already have. Lets not get carried away here; well just deal with the human lineage. Dr. Binazir calculated that the odds against each of us being born produced a number that makes the brain hurt. As you aptly point out, many persons losts lots of money at the roulette because they quests mathematically accurate. Thus, the probability of your existing at all is about 1 in 102,685,000. Probability of same boy knocking up same girl: 1 in 2000. The RecovHer Freedom Breakthrough Course- Work With Me. Lets say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause dont count. Blog Home Uncategorized dr ali binazir odds of being born. Now go forth and feel and act like the miracle that you are. Contributors control their own work and posted freely to our site. When making recommendations, I sometimes use affiliate links. Do you know the odds of being alive? Now let's say the chances of them actually talking to one another is one in 10. it is impossible)., The astronomer Sir Fred Hoyle illustrated this with his Junkyard Tornado Theory: The chance that higher life forms might have emerged in this way is comparable to the chance that a tornado sweeping through a junkyard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein.. Let's say a third of those (4 trillion) are relevant to our calculation, since the sperm created after your mom hits menopause don't count. Author and blogger Dr. Ali Binazir did the calculations last spring and decided that the chances of anyone existing are one in 102,685,000. The odds against 26 blacks in a row are about 66 million to one against; however, previous results have absolutely no effect on subsequent ones. For the sake of completeness: (102,640,000)(1045,000)(2000)(20,000) = 4x 102,685,007 102,685,000, Probability of your existing at all: 1 in 102,685,000. That is incredibly unlikely to the point of impossible. Were we meant to be, each and every one of us? They'd be amazed to hear that Chance has been toying with them now for years. First, your parents have to meet, then stay together long enough to reproduce, then conceive you at the exact right time so that the right egg drops (your mother has 100,000 in her lifetime), then the right sperm must make it in (your father produces 4 trillion during the years you could be born). And the chances of that turning into another meeting is about one in 10 also. He goes further back to look at the probability of all your ancestors successfully mating, and of all the right sperm meeting all the right eggs to make each one of those ancestors. As a comparison, the approximate number of atoms in the known universe is 10. Namely, that every one of your ancestors lived to reproductive age -- going all the way back not just to the first Homo sapiens, first Homo erectus and Homo habilis, but all the way back to the first single-celled organism. That's a pretty straightforward calculation. Popes point: that we are not accidents, that God chose to create you and [me]. No need for caution about drawing any conclusion other that the one he quite explicitly drew. Now things start getting interesting. If you shouldnt even be here, then what is the point of worrying? Or are we some mysterious combination of impossible and inevitable? This is the probability of you being born at the time you were born to your particular parents, with your particular genetic make-up. One night, perhaps, the same dream, grown hazy by morning. The question is, how long will it take for the fly to bring the entire moon back to the earth?
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