In her new book, Limitless: The Federal Reserve Takes On A New Age Of Crisis, New York Times reporter Jeanna Smialek focuses on another unelected institution with a lot of power over American life: the Federal Reserve. They also debate how reliable exit polls are in determining what motivates voters and consider how Democrats were able to overcome intra-party disagreements to pass a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. With the benefit of hindsight and some time to breathe, Galen Druke reflects on key moments of the 2020 race with the authors of the new book, Lucky: How Joe Biden Barely Won The Presidency. They also scrutinize a new survey that suggests most Americans think "The West Wing" and other political TV shows are reflective of how politics works. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. Galen Druke and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss the messages that Senators sent and whether we were able to glean anything about what kind of Justice Jackson would be. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price gold rush supreme second chance winners. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate and Galen reflect on the many twists and turns of the 2022 campaign so far, including the most salient policy issues and what the final results could tell us about pollsters performance this cycle. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. Digital Expert Zone; Our Services; About Us; Get In Touch; Shop; dyckman shooting 2021. fairfield, ct concerts on the green 2021 0. Plus, they debate the best way to ask Americans about their political identity. They also rank the Senate races that will be most important in determining which party controls the Senate next year. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. The crew discusses Congress's recent slew of legislation and whether that trend will continue with the new "Inflation Reduction Act." They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". The crew speaks with professors Jane Junn and Karthick Ramakrishnan about the context of the Atlanta attacks and how Asian-American political participation has evolved in recent decades. Transcripts by Erin Wade. According to a recent Marist poll, inflation is now Americans leading economic concern. While it appears unlikely that 17 Republicans will join Democrats in voting to convict the former president, the evidence presented could help shape the views of the public regarding what happened at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Its a bold suggestion, and in this installment of the podcast we interrogate it. The crew digs into why Democrats underperformed in a special election in Texas. The crew discusses Manchins rationale and where Democrats might go from here. They also analyze the court's other recent rulings on gun restrictions and school prayer and preview some of Tuesday's biggest primary elections. FiveThirtyEight Politics 295 views 25 Feb 2021 Transcribe your podcast [00:00:06] Hello and welcome to the 538 Politics podcast. They also analyze a new poll from YouGov that breaks down why 78 percent of Americans say they have changed their mind on one or more political issue over the course of their lives. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. They also look at the politics of two hot button issues in the Senate and speak with Carlos Odio of Equis Research about how Latino voters are viewing the two parties in 2022. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew discusses God, COVID-19 The Ticket - A Presidential Podcast comes from the Texas Tribune. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." Given some of the caveats in the poll, the crew asks whether it's a good or bad use of polling. It's tempting to use the special election to gauge the national political environment, but the crew explains why one election alone isn't a reliable indicator. By doing so we are missing another important divide, one that may actually run counter to the idea that America is hopelessly conflicted between red and blue. They also ask whether it's too early to conclude that the leak of a draft Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe has had little impact on the political environment. They also discuss recent polling showing that President Biden has disproportionately lost support among traditionally Democratic voting groups. The crew discusses the Virginia and new Jersey gubernatorial races a week before election day, and guesses how Americans feel about the potential provisions in the Democrats spending bill. And they look at the experiences of urban Republicans and rural Democrats in a country increasingly sorted geographically and politically. They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. FiveThirtyEight Politics The Gerrymandering Project: California . In the 2020 election cycle, Georgia found itself at the center of the American political universe. The crew reacts to the results in Tuesdays primaries in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Idaho, Kentucky and Oregon. President Bidens $2 trillion social spending and climate change agenda is in its most tenuous position yet after West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin announced that he will not support the Build Back Better Plan. FiveThirtyEight - YouTube Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. FiveThirtyEight Politics Transcripts | Podgist FiveThirtyEight Politics https://fivethirtyeight.com/podcasts/ Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. Feb. 28GLASTONBURY When Jonathan K. Luiz starts work as town manager March 31, he will be making $190,000 per year. They also debate whether the AARP is correct in assessing that women voters over the age of 50 are likely to decide the outcome of the 2022 midterms. Politics Podcast: American Opinion Of China Has Plummeted, Politics Podcast: Biden's Second State Of The Union Was His First Campaign Speech, Politics Podcast: How Our 2022 Forecasts Actually Did, Politics Podcast: The Politics Of Loneliness, Politics Podcast: The Elections Happening In 2023. Together they describe why the war has not turned out as originally expected, what the risks of escalation are today and how the conflict might come to an end. heritage commons university of utah. Thirty-six governors seats are up for election this fall and the crew looks at some where full control of state government might be decided by the governors race. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. They also take stock of how Americans are thinking about climate change and government initiatives to stem carbon emissions, after President Biden announced a goal of cutting U.S. emissions to half their 2005 levels by 2030. Posted by October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts October 30, 2021 bangladesh police ranks on fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts On the final day of COP26, we look at whether these types of international agreements actually shape countries climate policies and whether there are other factors that are more important. They also take a look at the endorsements former President Trump has made in 2022 congressional primaries and discuss why worries about inflation can be so politically potent. This is the first episode. Then the team debates if a surge of women registering to vote in June could be linked to the Supreme Courts recent abortion decision. The crew discusses two elections in Ohio this week that will test the sway of the establishment in both parties. He is one of the ten House Republicans who voted to impeach President Trump after his supporters attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6. They also try to get to the bottom of whether Americans support the Parental Rights In Education Bill -- or what its critics call the Dont Say Gay Bill -- which Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed into law last week. The crew discusses which indicators are worth watching to get a sense for how the parties will perform in the 2022 elections. The crew discusses how Liz Cheney and Madison Cawthorn's primaries serve as a test of what the Republican Party and its voters will and wont accept. In recent weeks, Democrats odds of keeping control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms have ticked up to sixty percent, according to our deluxe forecast model. Almost a year after the 2020 Democratic National Convention, the crew looks back at the record number of Democrats who ran for president in 2020 and assesses where they are now. They also assess how polls performed in 2019 and 2020 in general, with the benefit of hindsight and updated pollster ratings. Raffensperger's new book is called Integrity Counts.". House Minority Leader Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a signing ceremony for H.R. The crew debates whether the Democratic Party really is actually in disarray as it struggles to pass legislation and faces a difficult midterm year, or if its hurdles are usual for any party in power. The crew looks back at what Americans thought about some of the biggest political and cultural issues of 2021. All rights reserved. 04:58 PM. They also talk about what states are doing with their billions in excess cash and look into opinion polling on the U.S.s involvement in Ukraine. As the 2022 primaries begin in earnest and potential presidential candidates look ahead to 2024, the fight over the future of the political right is underway. They also discuss the accuracy of opinion polling conducted in authoritarian Russia and war-torn Ukraine. They also break down how candidate misconduct is generally factored into the FiveThirtyEight model. All. Rev also gives transcribers the autonomy to work for as much or little as they want. These articles reported facts without employing biased word choice, slant, or other types of media bias . They also touch on the health of the polling industry and how much Biden's success in a potential 2024 primary hangs on Democrats' performance at the midterms. My mid-week morning train WFH reads: The SPAC Fad Is Ending in a Pile of Bankruptcies and Fire Sales: At least eight businesses that went public through mergers with "blank-check" companies have sought protection from creditors. Sept. 25, 2014. negro-leagues-player- ratings. The crew discusses why the Republican National Committee chose to censure Representatives Cheney and Kinzinger and how different parts of the party view the violent events of January 6th, 2021. The crew discusses how the scandals surrounding Walker have evolved over the course of his Senate campaign and how the latest could affect the outcome of the race. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. We speak with the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, Patrick Murray, who wrote an article titled I blew it. The Gabfest, featuring Emily Bazelon, John Dickerson, and David Plotz, is the kind of informal and irreverent discussion Washington journalists have The crew also looks at changes the Democratic Party is hoping to make to the 2024 presidential primary calendar. The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. They also cover the redistricting process happening around the country after a number of big recent developments. How did the polling averages and seat-gain projections compare with the actual results? Labor Day traditionally marks the time when general election campaigning truly ramps up summer vacation is over, TV ads flood the airways and pollsters switch their models from registered voters to likely voters. The crew looks at how some of the most competitive primaries in 2022 are shaping up. Editor Chadwick Matlin turns the tables on Galen Druke and asks him questions about what he's learned from covering the 2022 election and his time as host of the podcast. 30, 2021 How The CDC's Blindspots Complicated The Fight Against COVID-19 By Maggie Koerth and Sinduja Srinivasan Filed under Podcast-19 Jun. The Supreme Court heard oral arguments on Wednesday in one of the highest profile cases of the term. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. Whereas Tester . Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! Good Sport TED Audio Collective Sports Requires subscription and macOS 11.4 or higher 28 FEB 2023 I'm Galen Truk. MANAGER'S SALARY. Overall, more moderate candidates were able to win against challengers from the Right and Left flank of both parties, although there was a sizable protest vote in some instances. The crew discusses what her path to the nomination could look like, given that Trump and Florida Gov. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. The crew discusses how hurricanes shape political perceptions, whether 52 Democrats senators would be all that different from 50 and how the Electoral Count Reform Act could prevent future attempts to meddle with American elections. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. Subscribe and listen Also available wherever you listen to podcasts Google Stitcher iHeartRadio Castbox TuneIn According to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal, Hispanic voters are now split evenly between the Democratic and Republican parties, just one year after 60 percent voted for Democratic House candidates. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. The crew discusses why the Kansas amendment that would have ended state constitutional rights to abortion failed by such a wide margin. Maybe its time to get rid of election polls. They also consider whether a poll that asks Americans if they think the U.S. is currently in a recession is a "good or bad use of polling.". COVID-19 has pushed Americans into more uncertain territory than most have ever known. The crew discusses the role of the debt ceiling in politics, why it exists in the first place, and the chances of it being abolished altogether. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. They also mark two years since the U.S. shut down in response to the coronavirus pandemic, by using data to explore some of the ways American life has changed in that time. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . The crew previews Tuesday's primaries in Georgia as well as contests in Arkansas, Alabama, Texas and Minnesota. The crew discusses what's in the "Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act" and why Senate Democrats have taken it up despite unmoving opposition. The State Of The Polls, 2016. And if partisan loyalists were to make their way onto the Fed board, that degree of power could be abused. What role do Liz Cheney-type Republicans have to play in the future of the GOP (if any)? Ohio Rep. Anthony Gonzalez announced he is retiring from Congress at the end of his term. They also discuss the latest developments in the current round of redistricting. The crew debates whether a recent Gallup poll showing that more Americans identify with the GOP than the Democratic Party is a "good or bad use of polling." Tune in on your preferred podcast platform! The Supreme Court is probably the most recognizable example, The crew discusses how the other nine Republicans are faring in their bids to win reelection and debate whether CNNs new polling methodology is a good or bad use of polling. The crew also takes a look at the changes to election law that Republicans have proposed in Georgia and other states after Trump's loss in 2020. It's a busy week! Dive in and Share your insights! NEW TOWN . In Kim Barker's memory, the city of Laramie . Zach and ESPN's Michael Schwartz break down the red-hot Suns ahead of their showdown with the Warriors, then ESPN's Dave McMenamin checks in on the Lakers -- plus . The data behind that evolution is striking. The team debates if Americans really do move to Canada, or to different U.S. states, for political reasons. They also discuss why gas stoves became such a hot topic of debate on the internet and what the 2024 primary for U.S. Senate in California will look like. RSS Loading. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. His new book is called "The Engagement: Americas Quarter-Century Struggle Over Same-Sex Marriage.". Lastly, the team analyzes how the educational divide is shaping American politics. The crew discusses how Americans are feeling about COVID-19 and what types of restrictions they do and don't support after almost two years. They also analyze a new poll from the University of New Hampshire that shows the states likely GOP primary voters favoring Florida Gov. Late Wednesday night in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court chose not to block a Texas law banning most abortions after the sixth week of pregnancy -- making it the most restrictive abortion law in the country. Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb joins the podcast to discuss Americas unpreparedness for COVID-19 and how the country should prepare for the next pandemic. The U.S. House Districts To Watch In 2022: 10/17/22 The team debates if Americans. It originally aired at the beginning of 2020 and across three episodes we looked at how our presidential primary system came to be, its consequences and how it could be different. The crew looks to the speeches from the past weekend's Conservative Political Action Conference for indications about where the Republican party is headed. Sign up to get unlimited songs and podcasts with occasional ads. The posting for the podcast's freelance audio editor position can be found here. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. The team assesses New York Governor Andrew Cuomo's political future after a report from the New York Attorney General concluded that he sexually harassed 11 women. Where the hot sports takes of the week meet the numbers that prove them right or tear them down. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. The Downballot is a weekly podcast dedicated to the many elections that take place below the presidency, from Senate to city council. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. Galen speaks with him. The crew previews Californias primaries, which offer unique insight into the divides within the Democratic Party. Atlantic writer Emma Green joins to talk about her recent article, "The Liberals Who Can't Quit Lockdown.". FiveThirtyEight Podcasts - FiveThirtyEight Podcasts Politics Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week. And what does Florida's new voting law tell us about the GOP's efforts to change the way Americans vote, and the party's larger motivations? Legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux speaks with Galen Druke about the Justices' arguments for overturning Roe v. Wade, where the legal debate goes next and how this contrasts and complements American opinion on abortion. fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. They also address concerns that the 2020 Census resulted in an undercount of Latinos. The crew discusses how Russias invasion of Ukraine is affecting U.S. politics and the RAND Corportation's Samuel Charap joins to explain the root of Russia's aggression. Galen Druke speaks with POLITICO Europe's Cornelius Hirsch and Clea Caulcutt about the dynamics at play in the French presidential election. The crew discusses why some Republican candidates are changing their tune about the legitimacy of the 2020 election depending on the situation. Why 10 Republicans Voted For Impeachment 300 views about 2 years ago 34:52 Please subscribe to the Dow-ballot on Apple Podcasts and leave . 450 episodes. But some Republicans are still jockeying for position to be the next leader of the party, the most prominent of which may be Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. They also introduce a new FiveThirtyEight collaboration with Ipsos aimed at polling Americans about the issues they care most about in the run up to the midterms. In this installment, civil and environmental engineer Daniel Cohan joins FiveThirtyEight's Sarah Frostenson, Maggie Koerth and Galen Druke to discuss why the blackouts occurred, where responsibility lies and how politics responds to these kinds of crises. Latino voters swung by eight percentage points toward President Trump in the last election, the largest swing of any racial or ethnic group in the electorate. How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Galen Druke speaks with Equis Research co-founder Carlos Odio about whether that trend continued in the 2022 midterms and what it all means for 2024. The crew reacts to Senator Raphael Warnock's win in the Georgia Senate runoff. They also ask whether a sentiment analysis suggesting that the press is more negative on Biden than it was on President Trump is a "good or bad use of data.". Progressive Democrats have struggled to break through in one of the most high-profile elections of the year: the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? Preview of Spotify. Feb. 25, 2021. info. Bot Love was created by Diego Senior. They also discuss shifting American views on foreign policy and the status of the infrastructure and budget bills currently being considered in the Senate. Two days after Election Day, control of the U.S. House and Senate still hangs in the balance as votes are tallied in the Western states. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. Perry Bacon Jr. speaks with Galen Druke about his recent reporting on the kinds of ideas that have gained currency on the Left and how the Right has responded.
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